The hottest NYMEX crude oil closed up sharply on J

NYMEX crude oil closed up sharply on January 10, due to the poor non-agricultural data of the United States in December

NYMEX crude oil closed up sharply on January 10, due to the poor non-agricultural data of the United States in December

January 13, 2014

[China paint information] because the non-agricultural data of the United States in December released on Friday was far worse than expected, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to further reduce QE was significantly reduced. At the same time, it was reported that there were new production problems in the buzzard oilfield in the North sea, the largest oilfield in the United Kingdom, US crude oil (92.42, -0.41, -0.44%) surged by more than 1%. The crude oil market closed higher. NYMEX crude oil futures rose $1.06, or 1.16%, to close at $92.72 per barrel

trend description on Friday (January 10):

during the Asian period, US crude oil rose slightly to around us $92.75. In the European session, US crude oil continued at 92 Between 75 U.S. dollars narrow finishing, non-agricultural data after the release of a fresh intraday high of 93.38 U.S. dollars/barrel. At the beginning of New York session, U.S. crude oil fell nearly $1, and then rebounded It fluctuated in a narrow range between $80

nymex crude oil futures hit $93.38 per barrel at the highest level and $91.99 per barrel at the lowest level, up $1.06 to close at $92.72 per barrel, up 1.16%

positive factors of Fundamentals:

1 Data released by the U.S. Department of labor (DOL) on Friday showed that the number of non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 74000 in December, far lower than the expected increase of 196000; In November, the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 241000. The US unemployment rate in December was 6.7%, better than the expected 7.0%

2. Data released by the Chinese Customs on Friday showed that China's exports increased by 4.3% year-on-year in December, while imports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of US $25.64 billion for the month. In 2013, the total value of foreign trade imports and exports was 4160.331 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year

3. It is reported that the buzzard oil field in the North Sea, the largest oil field in Britain, experienced new production problems on Friday, and the oil field was shut down two days ago

4. South Sudanese government forces recaptured an area occupied by rebels, and oil production in the area was suspended due to the war

fundamentals negative factors:

1 Jamesbullard, chairman of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis (uisfed), said on Friday that it would not rely on the quality of the non farm payrolls data in a single month to consider whether the Federal Reserve should continue to reduce QE. At the same time, compared with the non farm payrolls only increased by 74000 in December, it was more concerned about the unemployment rate from 7% to 6.7%. In addition, he said that the Federal Reserve looks likely to continue to reduce bond purchases

2 Rickr, chairman of Richmond fed, said on Friday that the FOMC would pay close attention to inflation, which is expected to return to 2% next year. It said that the future FOMC meeting would consider further reducing the intensity of asset purchases

3. Saudi Arabia's crude oil output rose from 9.745 million barrels per day in November to 9.819 million barrels per day in December. The world's largest crude oil exporter also increased its market supply

foreign media analyst Wangtao said, "from the perspective of technical analysis, U.S. crude oil may rebound to $93.48, and Brent crude oil will find the bottom at 105.59."

according to the survey data released by foreign media on Friday, nearly half of the analysts this week expect NYMEX crude oil futures to rise next week, because the current crude oil market is at a serious oversold level. Among the 37 analysts surveyed, 17 (46%) were bullish, 8 (22%) were bearish and 12 (32%) were flat. In the previous week's survey, nearly 60% of analysts were bearish on NYMEX oil prices this week

focus on the weekend and next week

Monday

Italy's industrial output adjusted in November

Hong Kong China Asian Financial Forum (to the 14th). Dutch finance minister desselblom will deliver a speech

Tuesday

Japan's November seasonally adjusted current account

Japan's November trade account/Ministry of Finance

Japan's November non seasonally adjusted current account

UK's December core retail price index

UK's December core consumer price index

UK's December seasonally adjusted core producer output price index

UK's December retail price index

UK's December non seasonally adjusted core producer output price index Index

UK December non seasonally adjusted core producer input price index

UK December non seasonally adjusted producer output price index

UK December non seasonally adjusted producer input price index

UK December consumer price index

US December core retail sales

US December retail sales

Vienna 2014 central and Eastern Europe Forum (to 15)

Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Lockhart delivered a speech on the economic outlook at the rotary club in Atlanta

rautengschleger, deputy governor of the German central bank in Strasbourg, attended a public hearing at the economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, This is one of the processes of nominating her to join the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank

Wednesday

Germany's 2013 GDP

euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade account in November

US December core producer price index

US December producer price index

US EIA crude oil inventory change last week (10000 barrels) (to 0109)

mersch, member of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank in salbrucken, attended a panel discussion on "the euro zone five years later" at the opening ceremony of the European Central Bank Euro exhibition held in salbrucken

the fourth German central bank monetary and financial institutions Official Forum (omfif) economist conference was held in Frankfurt, Joachimnagel, member of the Executive Committee of the Bundesbank of Germany, presided over the meeting.

ploso, chairman of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve of the United States, held the 13th annual economic outlook conference at the Business School of LaSalle University, Speech on the economic outlook

Chicago Dallas Fed chairman fisher made a outlook on the U.S. economy at a luncheon

Thursday

Japan's December domestic enterprise commodity price index

Australia's December seasonally adjusted employment participation rate

Australia's December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

Australia's December employment population change

euro zone's November non seasonally adjusted trade accounts

euro zone's December core consumer goods The final value of the price index

the final value of the consumer price index in the euro zone in December

the core consumer price index after the U.S. quarter adjustment in December

the U.S. consumer price index after the quarter adjustment in December

the U.S. December non farm data released on Friday was far worse than expected, which significantly cooled the expectation of the Federal Reserve to further reduce QE. At the same time, it was reported that there were new production problems in the buzzard oil field in the North Sea, the largest oil field in the UK, US crude oil (92.42, -0.41, -0.44%) surged by more than 1%. The crude oil market closed higher. NYMEX crude oil futures rose $1.06, or 1.16%, to close at $92.72 per barrel

trend description on Friday (January 10):

during the Asian period, US crude oil rose slightly to around us $92.75. In the European session, US crude oil continued at 92 Between 75 U.S. dollars narrow finishing, non-agricultural data after the release of a fresh intraday high of 93.38 U.S. dollars/barrel. At the beginning of New York session, U.S. crude oil fell nearly $1, and then rebounded It fluctuated in a narrow range between $80

nymex crude oil futures hit $93.38 per barrel at the highest level and $91.99 per barrel at the lowest level, up $1.06 to close at $92.72 per barrel, up 1.16%

positive factors of Fundamentals:

1 Data released by the U.S. Department of labor (DOL) on Friday showed that the number of non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 74000 in December, far lower than the expected increase of 196000; In November, the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 241000. The US unemployment rate in December was 6.7%, better than the expected 7.0%

2. Data released by the Chinese Customs on Friday showed that China's exports increased by 4.3% year-on-year in December, while imports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of US $25.64 billion for the month. In 2013, the total value of foreign trade imports and exports was 4160.331 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year

3. It is reported that new production problems occurred in the buzzard oilfield in the North Sea, the largest oil field in Britain, on Friday, 8. 5% two days ago Sample size: 0.1 ⑵ 00mm the oil field has been shut down

4. South Sudanese government forces recaptured an area occupied by rebels, and oil production in the area was suspended due to the war

fundamentals negative factors:

1 Jamesbullard, chairman of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis (uisfed), said on Friday that it would not rely on the quality of the non farm payrolls data in a single month to consider whether the Federal Reserve should continue to reduce QE. At the same time, compared with the non farm payrolls only increased by 74000 in December, it was more concerned about the unemployment rate from 7% to 6.7%. In addition, he said that the Federal Reserve looks likely to continue to reduce bond purchases

2. Rickr, chairman of Richmond fed, said on Friday that the FOMC would pay close attention to inflation, which is expected to return to 2% next year. It said that future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would consider further reducing the intensity of asset purchases

3. Saudi Arabia's crude oil output rose from 9.745 million barrels per day in November to 9.819 million barrels per day in December. The world's largest crude oil exporter also increased its market supply

foreign media analyst Wangtao said, "from the perspective of technical analysis, U.S. crude oil may rebound to $93.48, and Brent crude oil will find the bottom at 105.59."

according to the survey data released by foreign media on Friday, nearly half of the analysts this week expect NYMEX crude oil futures to rise next week, because the current crude oil market is at a serious oversold level. Among the 37 analysts surveyed, 17 (46%) were bullish, 8 (22%) were bearish and 12 (32%) were flat. In the previous week's survey, nearly 60% of analysts were bearish on NYMEX oil prices this week

focus on the weekend and next week

Monday

Italy's industrial output adjusted in November

Hong Kong China Asian Financial Forum (to the 14th). Dutch finance minister desselblom will deliver a speech

Tuesday

Japan's November seasonally adjusted current account

Japan's November trade account/Ministry of Finance

Japan's November non seasonally adjusted current account

UK's December core retail price index

UK's December core consumer price index

UK's December seasonally adjusted core producer output price index

UK's December retail price index

UK's December non seasonally adjusted core producer output price index Index

UK December non seasonally adjusted core producer input price index

UK December non seasonally adjusted producer output price index

UK December non seasonally adjusted producer input price index

UK December consumer prices have defined the development direction Solutions and utilization of the target index

U.S. December core retail sales

U.S. December retail sales

Vienna 2014 central and Eastern Europe Forum (to 15)

Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Lockhart delivered a speech on the economic outlook at the rotary club in Atlanta

Strasbourg deputy governor of the German central bank lautenschleger attended a public hearing at the economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, This is one of the processes for nominating her to join the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank

Wednesday

Germany's 2013 GDP

euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade account in November

US December core producer price index

US December producer price index

US EIA crude oil inventory change last week (10000 barrels) (to 0109)

salbrucken, executive director of the European Central Bank